Smoke forecast

Smoke forecast near me

The reading below is the smoke you actually breathe — ground-level PM2.5 from the nearest EPA monitor — followed by AirNow's next-day AQI forecast for the reporting area. Share your location or enter a ZIP code:

Worked example: a monitor reading AQI 165 (Unhealthy) today with a forecast of AQI 90 (Moderate) tomorrow is AirNow's signal that smoke is expected to thin over your area — an outlook for the reporting region, not a guarantee for your exact street. A flat or rising forecast means the plume is expected to linger.

How to read a smoke forecast

A smoke forecast is really an air-quality forecast: it predicts tomorrow's AQI for fine-particle pollution (PM2.5), the smoke you breathe. AirNow publishes it as a category and number per reporting area — the same 0–500 AQI scale and six colors the air quality map uses.

Read the direction, not just today's value. A forecast dropping from Unhealthy to Moderate says relief is expected; a forecast holding in the orange or red bands says the smoke is expected to stay. AirNow also flags an Action Day when local agencies expect pollution high enough to warrant caution — that flag is theirs, and we relay it as issued.

One honest limit: the forecast is for a reporting area, not your exact address. Terrain, a nearby fire, and hour-to-hour wind can push your street above or below the area outlook. Treat it as the official expectation, then confirm with the live reading in the tool above.

When will the smoke clear?

The honest answer is 1 to 4 days out, and it depends on two things at once: the fire and the weather. Smoke thins when the source fire is contained, when the wind shifts the plume away from you, when rain scrubs the air, or when the atmosphere mixes and lifts it. Any one of those can change the picture within hours.

That's why no one — us included — can name an exact clearing hour. What we can do is surface the agencies' own products: the AirNow forecast above for the next days' AQI near you, and NOAA's model plume graphics (below) for where the smoke itself is predicted to drift. We make no prediction of our own and we don't editorialize the risk — we relay the forecasts, attributed.

If the AirNow forecast for your area drops a category or two over the next day, that's the official signal to expect relief. If it holds flat in the unhealthy bands, plan for the smoke to stick around — and check the live reading again in the morning. While you wait it out, running an air purifier for wildfire smoke keeps the PM2.5 you breathe indoors down.

Smoke forecast vs. today's smoke map

These answer different questions. A smoke forecast is about the future — the next 1–4 days of expected air quality. A smoke map is about right now — where smoke is drifting overhead today, drawn from NOAA's satellite Hazard Mapping System (HMS) analysis.

They also measure different layers. The smoke map shows column smoke — everything the satellite sees in the sky, often thousands of feet up, which doesn't always reach the ground. The forecast and the live reading here are ground-level PM2.5 — the smoke at breathing height. Heavy smoke on the map with a low AQI means the plume is passing aloft; a high AQI means it has settled to the surface. Use both together.

Model smoke graphics (NOAA HRRR-Smoke)

For a gridded, hour-by-hour picture of where smoke is predicted to move, NOAA runs a weather model called HRRR-Smoke. It produces two views worth knowing: near-surface smoke (an estimate of the PM2.5 you'd breathe) and vertically integrated smoke (the total column, closer to what the satellite and the smoke map show).

NOAA publishes the live HRRR-Smoke graphics on its own pages — see NOAA's HRRR-Smoke viewer. We link it rather than embed it because it's a research model output that's best read on the source, with NOAA's own caveats. Raw HRRR-Smoke model integration on our own map is planned, not live — until then, we point you to the authoritative source and keep AirNow's official AQI forecast here.

Smoke forecast FAQ

How accurate are smoke forecasts?

Next-day AQI forecasts are reasonably reliable because they're built by local agencies who know their terrain and combine models with monitor data. Accuracy falls off with each day out, and a sudden wind shift or new fire can outrun any forecast. Treat it as the official expectation for the reporting area, and confirm with the live reading in the tool above.

How far out does a smoke forecast go?

Usefully, about 1 to 4 days. AirNow issues a next-day AQI outlook; NOAA's HRRR-Smoke model runs out to roughly 48 hours. Beyond a few days, smoke prediction depends on weather forecasts that themselves grow uncertain, so no one publishes a reliable week-ahead smoke forecast.

Where does the smoke forecast come from?

The AQI forecast above is AirNow's — EPA together with state, local, and tribal air agencies. The model plume graphics are NOAA's HRRR-Smoke (linked). We surface these agency products attributed; we don't generate a forecast of our own.

What's the difference between the forecast and the smoke map?

The forecast predicts the next days' ground-level AQI where you are. The smoke map shows today's smoke plumes overhead, from NOAA's satellite HMS analysis. Forecast is future and ground-level; the map is now and the full sky column. Read them together.

When will the smoke clear near me?

It depends on the fire and the weather, so we won't name an hour. If the AirNow forecast for your area drops a category over the next day, expect relief; if it holds in the unhealthy bands, plan for the smoke to linger. For the health meaning of a given AQI, see wildfire smoke & health.